strange results while building items

[Jago]

I am doing one of the level 3 quest.

The mission require 2 rare items (or to gather a lot of wood). The item was a level 2 staff requiring only Ash and I have 300 as weaponsmith in level 2 item so I did choose to produce the rare items.

Wit my old hammer I have 40% of building a rare item, 20% of a legendary (a bit more when using the HQ bonus).

So the chance of building a rare idem is 2X that of building a legendary item.

After 8 attempts I have got 4 commn items and 4 legendary items, not even one rare item.

So the question are:

a) the chance of success numbers displayed are really right?

b) are you sure your RNG work correctly?

While possible the distribution of success is a bit strange.

The chance of not getting a rare item in 8 attempts with a 40% chance of constructing one is 1,6%.

[Bolindus]

Did you learn maths ? Do you know how percentages work ?

If you have 40% out of 10, it means practicly that oyu can get 10 rares or none, its all about chances, yes they are bigger than 20% for legendary, but you were "lucky" and got triggered 4 times legendary item, so that 20% worked, when 20% for legendary works, you cant get rare any more.

[Jago]

Did you learn maths ? Do you know how percentages work ?

If you have 40% out of 10, it means practicly that oyu can get 10 rares or none, its all about chances, yes they are bigger than 20% for legendary, but you were "lucky" and got triggered 4 times legendary item, so that 20% worked, when 20% for legendary works, you cant get rare any more.

Why don't you read all the post before commenting?

Last 2 rows

"While possible the distribution of success is a bit strange.

The chance of not getting a rare item in 8 attempts with a 40% chance of constructing one is 1,6%."

BTW: 10 "failed" attempts so far, so now it is 0.6%. Still amply possible, but worth a check.

12 and 5 of those were legendary.

[Cuorion]

8, 10 or even 20 crafts can not be considered a normal distribution. You'd need hundreds.

I've experienced times when I got 10+ "failed" attempts to get what I needed.
Once I had 4 legendary without even having a hammer equipped while trying to get 5 normal crafts for a quest.

If it makes more sense to you (considering your math analysis) think of our examples and your experience as the 0,3% chance to be outside the normal gauss distribution of all crafts ingame.

[Jago]

8, 10 or even 20 crafts can not be considered a normal distribution. You'd need hundreds.

I've experienced times when I got 10+ "failed" attempts to get what I needed.
Once I had 4 legendary without even having a hammer equipped while trying to get 5 normal crafts for a quest.

If it makes more sense to you (considering your math analysis) think of our examples and your experience as the 0,3% chance to be outside the normal gauss distribution of all crafts ingame.

Sure, I know it is possible and with enough people doing it even guaranteed that someone will get the "strange" streak of results, that is why my question was:

"the chance of success numbers displayed are really right?"

and this was not a bug report.

As computer RNG aren't really random but use an algorithm sometime they are streaky too. But I hope the system use a new seed every time I log so that too should not be a problem.

Luck of the dices I suppose.

Currently 16 attempts, 8 legendary 8 normal  , someone want a Heretic slaying level 2 staff?

[loco]

Eu estava muito desapontado com a produção de artesanato.
Então eu resolvi fazer uma estatisca da minha produção.

You can check it here http://forum.imperialhero.org/int/index.php?topic=6665.0 (in portuguese)

My chances of production are:

Rare %66.00
Lendary %33.00
Epic %16.50

Here are my results so far (40 attemps).

6 normal (6/40 = 15%)
11 rare (11/40 = 27,5%)
16 lendary (16/40 = 40%)
7 epic (7/40 = 17,5%)